Garber, Peter B., and Lars E.O.Svensson. "The Operation and Collapse of Fixed Exchange Rate Regimes," in Gene Grossman and Kenneth Rogoff (eds.) The Handbook of International Economics, vol. 3 (Amsterdam: Elsevier, 1995). good survey
Krugman, P.,1979, A model of balance of payments crises, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking 11: 311-325
Flood, R. and P. Garber (1984) "Collapsing Exchange Rate Regimes: Some Linear Examples", Journal of International Economics.
Obstfeld, Maurice, "The Logic of Currency Crises," in Barry Eichengreen, Jeffry Frieden, and Jurgen von Hagen, eds., Monetary and Fiscal Policy in an Integrated Europe (New York: Springer), pp. 63-90.
Obstfeld and Rogoff, Foundations of International Macroeconomics, 554-556 (the classical Krugman model of speculative attacks.)
Obstfeld and Rogoff, Foundations of International Macroeconomics, 648-653 (a multiple equilibrium interpretation of speculative attacks.)
Andres Velasco, "When are Fixed Exchange Rates Really Fixed?", NBER w.p. 5842, November 1996.
Chang R. and A. Velasco (2000) “Financial Fragility and the exchange rate regime”, Journal of Economic Theory, 92 (2000), 1-34.
V. V. Chari and Patrick J. Kehoe, "Financial Crises as Herds " FRB Minn Working Paper 600 (March 2000)
Working Paper 622 (May 2002) On the Robustness of Herds V. V. Chari and Patrick J. Kehoe
Several other recent papers by Ricardo Caballero (with various co-authors), available from Caballero's web page:
Ricardo Caballero, "Emerging Market Crises: An Asset Markets Perspective," February 4, 2000.
Ricardo Caballero and Arvind Krishnamurthy, "International Liquidity Management: Sterilization Policy in Illiquid Financial Markets," May 17, 2000.
Ricardo Caballero, "Aggregate Volatility in Modern Latin America: Causes and Cures [WB LCR FY00] May 31, 2000.
International Liquidity Illusion: On the Risks of Sterilization February 5, 2001
Smoothing Sudden Stops August 15, 2002.
"A Dual Liquidity Model of Emerging Markets," American Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings, forthcoming May 2002 (withA. Krishnamurthy).
Burnstein A, J. Neves, and S. Rebelo (2001) Distribution Costs and Real Exchange Rate Dynamics During Exchange-Rate-Based-Stabilizations NBER Working Paper 7862
Barry Eichengreen, Andrew K. Rose, Charles Wyplosz, "Contagious Currency Crises," NBER Working Paper 5681, July 1996
Maurice Obstfeld, "Rational and Self-Fulfilling Balance-of-Payments Crises," American Economic Review 76, No. 1 March 1986, 72-81.
speculative attacks on currencies under pegged exchange rates
Hal Cole and Tim Kehoe, "Self Fulfilling Debt Crises," FRB Minneapolis, December 1996.
under what conditions can creditors’ refusal to roll over debt, due to worry about default, be self-fulfilling?
Hal Cole and Tim Kehoe, "A Self-Fulfilling Model of Mexico's 1994 -95 Debt Crisis," April 1996 Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis staff report 210
Lahiri A. and C. Vegh, Krugman Balance of Payments Crises: are they for real?, UCLA Working Paper, 1997
Corsetti G. and P. Pesenti, "Welfare and Macroeconomic Interdependence", NBER WP, December 1997
Bordo, Michael D., and Anna J. Schwartz, "Why Clashes between Internal and External Stability Goals End in Currency Crises," Open Economies Review, Vol. 7 (1996), pp. 437-468.
Draws lessons on currency crises based on a review of historical and modern currency crises.
Cavallari, L. and G. Corsetti (1996) "Arbitrage Mechanisms Leading to Currency Crises", University of Rome, August 1997
Giancarlo Corsetti and Nouriel Roubini, "What Caused the Asian Currency and Financial Crisis?", Yale University, January 1998.
Guillermo A. Calvo, "Balance of Payments Crises in a Cash-in-Advance Economy," Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking 19, February 1987.
more on speculative attacks on currencies under pegged exchange rates
Calvo G. Variety of Capital-Market Crises, University of Maryland WP n. 15, 1995
Calvo, Guilermo, and Enrique Mendoza, "Reflections on Mexico's Balance of Payments Crisis: A Chronicle of a Death Foretold," mimeo, University of Maryland, May 1996
Chari, V.V. and Patrick Kehoe, "Hot Money," mimeo, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, December 1996
Andrew Atkeson and Jose-Victor Rios Rull, "The Balance of Payments and Borrowing Constraints: An Alternative View of Mexico's Recent Crisis," Journal of International Economics, 1997.
Blanco, H., and P. Garber, "Recurrent Devaluation and Speculative Attacks on the Mexican Peso," Journal of Political Economy, 1986.
Calvo G. and Mendoza, E., "Petty Crime, Cruel Punishment," AER May 1996.
Dornbusch, R. I. Goldfjan, and R. Valdes, "Currency Crises and Collapses," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1995.
Frankel, J. and A. Rose, "Currency Crashes in Emerging Markets: An Empirical Treatment," Journal of International Economics, 1996.
Jeremy Bulow and Paul Klemperer, "Rational Frenzies and Crashes," Journal of Political Economy 102 no. 1, February 1994, 1-23.
Kenneth A. Froot and Maurice Obstfeld, "Exchange Rate Dynamics under Stochastic Regime Shifts: A Unified Approach," Journal of International Economics 31 No. 3/4, November 1991, 203-30.
nice method for solving models with regime shifts; applications include speculative attacks
Kenneth A. Froot and Maurice Obstfeld, "Stochastic Process Switching: Some Simple Solutions," Econometrica, 59 (January 1991), 241-250.
Lars E.O. Svensson, "Why Exchange-Rate Bands? Monetary Independence in Spite of Fixed Exchange Rates," NBER Working Paper #4207, November, 1992.
Robert Flood and Peter
Garber, "The
Linkage between Speculative Attack and Target Zone Models of Exchange Rates,"
Quarterly Journal of Economics CVI No. 4, November 1991, 1367-72.
Garber, Peter M., and Lars E.O. Svensson, "The Operation and Collapse of Fixed Exchange Rate Regimes," Chapter 36 in GR volume. [NBER Working Paper version available online by clicking on the title.]
Flood, Robert P., Peter Garber, and Charles Kramer, "Collapsing Exchange Rate Regimes: Another
Linear Example," Journal of International Economics, Vol. 41
(1996), pp. 223-234. Analyzes the feasibility of sterilizing the effects of
reserve losses. [NBER Working Paper version available online by clicking on
the title.]
*Calvo, Guillermo, "Balance
of Payments Crises in a Cash-in-Advance Economy, Journal of Money, Credit
and Banking, Vol. 19 (1987), pp. 19-32. Balance of payments crises in
an optimizing model with a cash-in-advance constraint. [Paper available
from JSTOR by clicking on the title.]
*Lahiri, Amartya and Carlos A. Végh, "Delaying the Inevitable:
Optimal Interest Rate Policy and BOP Crises" (mimeo, UCLA, 1999) Analyzes
the feasibility and optimality of raising interest rates to defend a peg.
*Cole, Hal and Tim Kehoe, "A Self-Fulfilling Model of Mexico's 1994-1995 Debt Crisis," Journal of International Economics, Vol. 41 (1996), pp. 309-330.
*Krugman, Paul, ''Are Currency Crises Self-Fulfilling?,'' in Ben Bernanke and J. Rotembers, eds., NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1996 Cambridge, Mass.,: MIT Press, 1996), pp. 345-407. An interesting debate on ''classical'' models of balance of payments crises a la Krugman versus the new breed of self-fulfilling expectations models (includes comments by Tim Kehoe, Maurice Obstfeld and Peter Garber).
Chang R. and A. Velasco (2000) “Financial Fragility and the exchange rate regime”, Journal of Economic Theory, 92 (2000), 1-34. (old version, NBER wp 6469)
Chang R. and A. Velasco (2001), "A Model of Financial Crises in Emerging Markets: A Canonical Model," with Andrés Velasco, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 116 (2001), 489-517